Emmy predictions: Who will win -- and who deserves to

By Matt Roush,

This is a particularly difficult year to divine which way the Emmy winds will blow -- toward past favorites or strong new drama and comedy contenders. Here's my wish list, and in some cases the usual wild guesses, about how it will all go down at Sunday's ceremony on with Jimmy Kimmel's much anticipated first turn as host.Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire, HBOBreaking Bad, AMCDownton Abbey, PBSGame of Thrones, HBOHomeland, ShowtimeMad Men, AMCHands down the toughest category to call. For the first time in five years, Mad Men is not the runaway front-runner. Not with the riveting first season of Homeland, the darkly brilliant Breaking Bad and the crowd-pleasing Masterpiece phenom Downton Abbey all as possible spoilers. All are deserving, and Mad Men has Emmy momentum in its favor, but unless there's a four-way tie -- sorry, HBO, your epic fantasy and Prohibition drama don't stand a chance -- the widespread affection for mainstream period fave Downton could edge out the edgier critical faves. Homeland was my No. 1 show of the last year -- and it's coming back strong next weekend -- so that's what I'm rooting for, but I'd be OK with any of the Top 4. (I would be pleasantly shocked with a Game of Thrones win, but fantasy is a tough sell at the Emmys, and the first season told a more unified story, as it did in the book series.)Most likely to win: Downton or Mad Men; Should win: Homeland or Breaking BadWant more TV news and reviews? Subscribe to TV Guide Magazine now!Lead Actor, Drama

Hugh Bonneville, Downton AbbeySteve Buscemi, Boardwalk EmpireBryan Cranston, Breaking BadMichael C. Hall, DexterJon Hamm, Mad MenDamian Lewis, HomelandThree-time winner Cranston had to sit out last year but is back with a vengeance, facing a strong field of stars still waiting for a first Emmy. Top challengers to Cranston's ever-more-chilling work as master criminal Walter White: Hamm, whose iconic portrayal of Don Draper gains depth by the season (and becomes more poignant the older the character gets), and Lewis as the tormented POW-turned-sleeper agent who always kept us guessing. Most likely to win: Cranston; Should win: HammLead Actress, Drama

Kathy Bates, Harry's LawGlenn Close, DamagesClaire Danes, HomelandMichelle Dockery, Downton AbbeyJulianna Margulies, The Good WifeElisabeth Moss, Mad MenIf there's any slam dunk, it's Danes' blistering performance as the bipolar CIA analyst relentlessly tracking (and seducing) her enigmatic prey at the cost of her sanity. Too bad her arrival upstages Moss' most triumphant season to date as Peggy, who finally got the gumption to strike out on her own.Most likely to/Should win: DanesSupporting Actor, Drama

Jim Carter, Downton AbbeyBrendan Coyle, Downton AbbeyPeter Dinklage, Game of ThronesGiancarlo Esposito, Breaking BadJared Harris, Mad MenAaron Paul, Breaking BadIf the rule holds that dying for your art wins you an Emmy, the contest is between Esposito's chilling kingpin Gus Fring and Harris' tragic ad man Lane Pryce. Incredibly, Mad Men has yet to win an acting Emmy in any category, and the deep pathos of Harris' performance certainly qualifies. But Esposito, with his icy control and menace (not to mention his explosive exit) is the favorite, much the way Margo Martindale triumphed on Justified a year ago.Most likely to/Should win: EspositoSupporting Actress, Drama

Christine Baranski, The Good WifeJoanne Froggatt, Downton AbbeyAnna Gunn, Breaking BadChristina Hendricks, Mad MenArchie Panjabi, The Good WifeMaggie Smith, Downton AbbeyI love everyone's work here -- how wonderful for Gunn finally to be nominated -- and will likely be silently rooting for Hendricks, whose personal and professional growth as the fabulous Joan this season gave Mad Men some of its best moments. But this category often belongs to the scene-stealer, and no one's better at that than Dame Maggie as the withering Dowager Countess. (Who can't wait to watch her spar with Shirley MacLaine next season?)Most likely to win: Smith; Should win: HendricksComedy Series

The Big Bang Theory, CBSCurb Your Enthusiasm, HBOGirls, HBOModern Family, ABC30 Rock, NBCVeep, HBOWhen you're on a roll, you're on a roll. It's unlikely anything can stop the glorious Modern Family's march to a third straight Emmy -- although Big Bang just keeps getting better and more popular as it beefs up the wacky women's roles. From the underdog ranks, Lena Dunham's pungent Girls has impressive indie-cult cred, although HBO's three contenders could cancel each other out.Most likely to/Should win: Modern FamilyLead Actor, Comedy

Alec Baldwin, 30 RockLouis C.K., LouieDon Cheadle, House of LiesJon Cryer, Two and a Half MenLarry David, Curb Your EnthusiasmJim Parsons, The Big Bang TheoryTime to back a dark horse, or should we say an ugly "Duckling," with the soulful Louis C.K. submitting his hour-long masterpiece set during a USO stand-up tour of Afghanistan. David as the "social assassin" in Curb's uproarious "Palestinian Chicken" episode could also potentially upset the presumptive favorites, Big Bang's double-winner Parsons and 30 Rock's much-rewarded Baldwin.Most likely to win: Parsons or (long shot) Louis C.K.; Should win: Louis C.K.Lead Actress, Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New GirlLena Dunham, GirlsEdie Falco, Nurse JackieTina Fey, 30 RockJulia Louis-Dreyfus, VeepMelissa McCarthy, Mike & MollyAmy Poehler, Parks and RecreationAnother toss-up in a very cluttered category. Falco was awesome as Jackie finally faced her demons, Emmy darling Louis-Dreyfus nailed the neurotic insecurities of a hapless Veep, and Poehler got my vote as an endearingly gung-ho city-council candidate. Few guessed McCarthy would win last year, and while I'm torn between last season's new "girls" -- Deschanel's effervescent sprite and Dunham's bravely de-glamorized twentysomething -- I'm defying the odds by sticking with Jess.Most likely to win: Deschanel or Louis-Dreyfus; Should win: Deschanel or PoehlerSupporting Actor, ComedyTy Burrell, Modern FamilyJesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern FamilyMax Greenfield, New GirlBill Hader, Saturday Night LiveEd O'Neill, Modern FamilyEric Stonestreet, Modern FamilyYou can't swing an Emmy without hitting a Modern Family nominee, so whose turn is it this year? Many are favoring the overdue veteran O'Neill, but last year's winner Burrell remains the comic heart and soul of the show as the hapless doofus of a family man. Personally, I'd give it to the fearlessly hilarious Greenfield for going beyond the douchey surface to make us love the irrepressibly fussy and insecure Schmidt.Most likely to win: Burrell (or any of his Modern co-stars); Should win: GreenfieldSupporting Actress, Comedy

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang TheoryJulie Bowen, Modern FamilyKathryn Joosten, Desperate HousewivesSofia Vergara, Modern FamilyMerritt Wever, Nurse JackieKristen Wiig, Saturday Night LiveThe Modern women probably have the edge, but the late and beloved Joosten (whose character died in the Housewives finale) is a sentimental favorite, and Bialik's uncanny performance as Sheldon's femme-bot doppelganger represents a classic career comeback. Kudos to the Academy, by the way, for recognizing Jackie's delightful Wever as the sunniest of nurses, always reminding us that the show is essentially still a comedy.Most likely to win: Bowen or Joosten; Should win: BialikMovie/Miniseries

American Horror Story, FXGame Change, HBOHatfields & McCoys, HistoryHemingway & Gellhorn, HBOLuther, BBC AmericaSherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia, PBSThe garish Horror Story series is the most nominated, having fought (and bled) its way into this category. But the traditional Emmy voter is more likely to reward History's grim all-star family-feud blockbuster Hatfields & McCoys, which successfully revived the classic historical made-for-TV epic, or HBO's topical docudrama Game Change, about the last presidential campaign, with Julianne Moore's knockout (and sure-to-win) impersonation of Sarah Palin. My other acting picks in the movie/minis field: Benedict Cumberbatch as the volatile Sherlock, and in the supporting categories, Jessica Lange continuing her winning streak for Horror Story, and Ed Harris as Game Change's John McCain, though I'd love to see the droll Martin Freeman make it a matched set as Sherlock's Watson. Most likely to win: Game Change; Should win: HatfieldsReality-Competition Program

The Amazing Race, CBSDancing With the Stars, ABCProject Runway, LifetimeSo You Think You Can Dance, FoxTop Chef, BravoThe Voice, NBCHard to bet against the globe-trotting Race, because no other show has its scope and scale, and it has only lost once in this category (to Top Chef). And yet those revolving chairs in the "blind audition" round of NBC's singing spectacular The Voice is the best gimmick to hit this genre in ages, helping this upstart unseat American Idol. For pure talent, though, nothing beats Dance (before Fox messed with its format this year).Most likely to win: Race; Should win: DanceSubscribe to TV Guide Magazine now!

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